ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥

Kansas State’s loss to Army last week left the K-State fanbase in disarray. How could one of the Big 12 Conference’s purported preseason favorites lose at home to a team that lost to FCS Tarleton State the week before?

KSU’s stunning defeat changed the outlook for Friday’s game against ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥. Before the season, even the most optimistic UA fans probably penciled in a loss against the Manhattan ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥.

Now? It’s basically a pick 'em. K-State is a 1.5-point favorite as of this writing. The line opened at KSU minus-2.5. At one point during the week, ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥ was favored by the same margin.

Even the oddsmakers and “sharps� don’t know what to do with this matchup.

All I know for certain is that KSU losing is not a favorable development for ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥. Brent Brennan and his staff would never admit as much publicly, but they couldn’t have been happy to see K-State lose to fall to 1-2. They know they will be facing a hungry, desperate team under the lights at ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥ Stadium.

“Regardless of who they played the week before,� UA offensive coordinator Seth Doege said, “we’re gonna get their best shot.�

The opponent is not irrelevant here. Army, like the other service academies, is a tricky opponent. the film of KSU’s defense from that game is basically “uselessâ€� because Army’s option offense is so different from ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥â€™s.

The Black Knights had 70 rushing attempts and 12 passing attempts in that game. That kind of ratio hasn’t been seen around here since the second half of the 2016 Territorial Cup.

But Friday’s matchup isn’t about schematics. It’s a who-wants-it-more game. After last week’s loss, KSU’s urgency meter will be set on max.

Take that for data!

If you’re looking for a sign that ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥â€™s offense is different this year, take a gander at UA’s target distribution.

Receiver Javin Whatley leads the team with eight targets through two games, . His target share is 16.3%.

Four other receivers — Brandon Phelps, Isaiah Mizell, Gio Richardson and Luke Wysong — have five targets apiece. Each has accounted for 10.2% of ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥â€™s 49 pass targets.

Last season, Tetairoa McMillan had a whopping 33.6% target share. It would have been foolish not to heavily involve a player who would become the eighth overall pick in the NFL Draft. But until fellow receiver Chris Hunter emerged late in the season, no one stepped up as a consistent alternative.

Hunter ended up with a 13.2% target share, with 33 of his 51 targets coming in the final four games. Slot receiver Jeremiah Patterson and tailback Quali Conley were next at 10.9% (42 targets apiece).

Quarterback Noah Fifita was guilty at times last year of locking in on McMillan. So far this year, Fifita is spreading the love.

Twelve ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥ caught at least one pass last week vs. Weber State. Last year’s high was 10. ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥ had six or fewer five times.

“Anytime that you can distribute the ball to more people that can impact the game, it's good for your offense,� Brennan said. “Noah’s doing a really good job of getting through his progressions or going to the right person. ... I'm really encouraged by that.�

(Rincon) Market report

Going up: Homegrown QBs

Several schools in the Big 12 have upgraded at quarterback via the transfer portal. But homegrown QBs are dominating so far. Five of the top seven QBs in passing yards per game have played for one — and only one — program. Likewise five of the top six in passing touchdowns. And four of the top six — including the top two, Fifita and Texas Tech’s Behren Morton — in efficiency rating. It even appears that Colorado is turning to instead of transfer Kaidon Salter for Friday’s game at Houston. There’s still something to be said for recruiting and developing.

Going down: Big 12 vs. SEC

The Big 12 has held its own against two of the other three so-called “Powerâ€� conferences. It’s 3-1 against the ACC and 2-2 against the Big Ten. As for the SEC, well, let’s just say that’s not something the league is promoting in its weekly media release. The Big 12 is 0-3 against the SEC. ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥ State had a chance to flip the narrative last week at Mississippi State, but lost in in the final minute. That 0-3 mark won’t help the Big 12 in its never-ending quest for national respect under Brett Yormark. And the next opportunity to knock off an SEC foe won’t come until the postseason.

A question from my X

“I propose to blitz Avery (Johnson) every passing down until proven that KSU can handle it. What say you?� —

Even Danny Gonzales won’t blitz 100% of the time. But he’s doing it about twice as often as predecessor Duane Akina — 60.4% vs. 30.0% last year.

How does Johnson handle blitzes? So far this season, he’s been blitzed on 38 of 103 dropbacks, per PFF. He averages 6.7 yards per attempt with a 58.3% completion rate and a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when blitzed. Those numbers are all better — 8.3, 68.3%, 4-0 — when he isn’t blitzed.

Last year? Similar story. When blitzed: 6.0 yards per attempt, 52.9%, 11-4 TD-INT ratio. When not blitzed: 7.8, 59.6%, 14-6.

So we might be onto something here. Gonzales is no doubt aware of those numbers.

But he also understands that you can’t give the same look every snap. The goal against Johnson is to create pressure while also maintaining rush-lane discipline.

Like most quarterbacks, Johnson isn’t nearly as accurate or efficient when pressured. Unlike most quarterbacks, Johnson can turn one defensive mistake into a 30-yard run.

Threads

ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥ is breaking out old-school, Chuck Cecil-era helmet decals for “Retro Night.â€� They feature the mostly red version of the “Block Aâ€� and blue paw-print stickers. I don’t see the UA moving away from the current Block A; it's become an integral part of the school’s branding initiatives. I don’t see why the paw prints couldn’t come back. Only about a dozen schools use to signify individual or team achievements. They include defending national champion Ohio State — the most consistently successful program in college football. If Ohio State deems it a worthwhile endeavor, so should ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥.

What he said ...

“This will be the best quarterback, in my opinion, from (a) mobility, playmaking-ability standpoint that we’re going to play. He’s got all the tools.� — on Arkansas State QB Jalen Raynor

What he meant ...

“I’m going to say some version of this about every quarterback that we face this season. Do I really think Raynor is more mobile and talented than Avery Johnson? That he’s better than Noah Fifita, Brendan Sorsby, Sam Leavitt, Josh Hoover and Jalon Daniels? You can’t spell ‘coachspeak’ without ‘coach.’ Just doing my job here, folks.�

The other side

“We’re going to reset as a team. We’re going to come together. I’ve been in tough spots before with this team. In 2022, people didn’t think we were going to win a Big 12 championship after the first couple games. The season is not over yet. There’s definitely a long way to go, and we got a lot of things to fix, but it’s not over at all.� — KSU defensive tackle Damian Ilalio ()

Pick to click (aka #fadelev)

I was tempted to take ASU minus-16.5 in a bounce-back situation vs. Texas State. Instead, I’m going with OSU — and no, it’s not Oklahoma State. Our old Pac-12 pal Oregon State is visiting Texas Tech and getting 23.5 points. The Beavers are 0-2, having lost at home to Cal and Fresno State. But that Fresno game was weird. The Beavers outgained the Bulldogs 528-318. OSU had twice as many first downs (30-15). Fresno scored 36 points but had only two offensive touchdowns. I don’t see an outright upset in Lubbock, but I envision a closer game than the line suggests. Take the points. (season record: 2-0)

One last thing

Hat tip to David Ubben of for pointing this out on the Bunch Formation podcast:

The loser of the season-opening in Dublin, Ireland, has suffered from a hangover effect that has nothing do with excessive Guinness consumption.

Nebraska lost to Northwestern in 2022 and finished 4-8. (Northwestern didn’t exactly thrive afterward, failing to win another game that season.)

Navy lost to Notre Dame in 2023 and finished 5-7.

Florida State lost to Georgia Tech in 2024 and finished 2-10 — the Seminoles’ worst record in 50 years.

Why bring all this up? Because Kansas State lost to Iowa State in Dublin this year and hasn’t played well since.

The desert doesn’t seem like a good place to cure a hangover. We’ll see.