As Hurricane Lorena intensifies in Mexico, its potential impact on Tucson has prompted a flash flood watch starting Friday afternoon, the weather service said Wednesday.
Current forecasts provided on Wednesday project rainfall totals anywhere from a half-inch and up to three inches of rain for a large swath of Southeast ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥ over a three-day span, the National Weather Service in Tucson said.
Hurricane Lorena strengthened Wednesday over Mexico, but any impact on Southern ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥ over the next few days was unclear.
A flash flood watch will be in effect for most of southeastern ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥ starting noon Friday and lasting through 5 p.m. Saturday, the weather service here said. The area generally stretches from Kitt Peak east to Tucson and Graham County and south to the U.S.-Mexico border.
Hurricane Lorane, currently off the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to move north up the coastline then northeast into Sonora and other portions of northern Mexico, the weather service said.
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Still, the storm’s exact path is uncertain.
There is a chance it could weaken early and die off out over the Pacific Ocean. But the weather service here says there is “high confidence†that the storm will follow the Baja coastline and eventually turn towards northern Mexico. That would move tropical moisture into Southern ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥ starting Thursday.
If that happens, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning Thursday afternoon, and they could last into Saturday, the weather service said. The current forecast shows the bulk of rainfall coming Friday morning.
Tucson will likely be on the lower end of those projections, the weather service here said, with about a half-inch of rain expected to fall on the Old Pueblo. The Willcox and Benson areas are expected to see up to an inch of rainfall. And areas further south, like Nogales and Bisbee, are expected to see up to two inches of rain over the three-day span.
Heavier rainfall, up to five inches over the three-day span in some areas, could occur but it’s unlikely, the weather service said.
Lorena was centered Wednesday about 145 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and was moving northwest at 16 mph, the Associated Press reported. it was expected to continue strengthening throughout the day and heavy rain up to 15 inches was forecasted for portions of the Baja Peninsula, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said.
Forecasters also said Lorena should weaken to a tropical storm by Friday, the AP reported.
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